Baccarat games are normally dealt out of a shoe containing eight full decks, although it is possible to find six-deck variations at some online casinos. Some rare variants available in Macau may use one or two decks as well.
You would perhaps intuitively conclude your odds of winning are higher when fewer cards are in play. However, this is not always the case as you shall see after you examine the table below more closely.
Deck Number and Winning Probabilities in Baccarat
Deck Number
Player Winning Probability
Banker Winning Probability
Tie Winning Probability
1 Deck
0.44676
0.459624
0.093615
2 Decks
0.446508
0.459072
0.094419
6 Decks
0.446278
0.458652
0.095068
8 Decks
0.446246
0.458597
0.095155
1. The Probabilities For Player and Banker Decrease with More Decks
As you have perhaps noticed after a closer inspection of the table, the winning probabilities of the Player and Banker hands decrease proportionately to the number of decks.
The opposite is true for the Tie bet. The likelihood of the Player and Banker pushing increases ever so slightly the more decks you introduce to the shoe.
The Player side will win approximately 44.68% of the time in single-deck games as opposed to 44.62% in eight-deck variations.
We observe a similar tendency with the Banker whose winning probability drops from 45.96% in single-deck games to 45.87% with eight decks.
In the meantime, the likelihood of the two sides pushing jumps from 9.36% with one deck to 9.51% with eight decks.
2. Fewer Decks = Fewer Card Combinations
These discrepancies in the winning probabilities for Player and Banker are due to the fact that fewer decks produce a smaller number of possible card combinations. In turn, this also has an impact on the house advantage and your expected value as you shall see shortly.
Deck Number and Possible Hand Combinations for Player, Banker, and Tie
Deck Number
Player Combinations
Banker Combinations
Tie Combinations
1 Deck
6.5 Billion
6.7 Billion
1.4 Billion
2 Decks
487.8 Billion
501.5 Billion
103.2 Billion
6 Decks
392.2 Trillion
403.1 Trillion
83.5 Trillion
8 Decks
2.2 Quadrillion
2.3 Quadrillion
475.6 Trillion
Effect of Deck Number on Theoretical Return in Baccarat
The discrepancies in the probabilities impact the theoretical return players can anticipate when playing baccarat against multiple decks. The long-term return of the Banker bet declines as the deck number increases.
Conversely, the Player and Tie wagers yield slightly better expected value when more decks are utilized. The house edges in eight-deck baccarat are slightly lower than those gamblers face in six-deck variations of the game.
Expected Value of the Player Bet with One Deck
(1 x 0.446760) + (-1 x 0.459624) + (0 x 0.093615) = -0.01286
Expected Value of the Banker Bet with One Deck
(0.95 x 0.456924) + (-1 x 0.446760) + (0 x 0.093615) = -0.010117
Expected Value of the Tie Bet with One Deck
(8 x 0.093615) + (-1 x 0.456924) + (-1 x 0.446760) = -0.157464
Expected Value of the Player Bet with Six Decks
(1 x 0.446278) + (-1 x 0.458652) + (0 x 0.095068) = -0.012374
Expected Value of the Banker Bet with Six Decks
(0.95 x 0.458652) + (-1 x 0.446278) + (0 x 0.095068) = -0.010558
Expected Value of the Tie Bet with Six Decks
(8 x 0.095068) + (-1 x 0.446278) + (-1 x 0.458652) = -0.14438
As you can see, baccarat variants that play with one and six decks offer slightly lower expected value for Player and Tie wagers compared to eight-deck games. Regardless of deck number, the theoretical return is still negative and you will inevitably end up in the red the longer you play. Nonetheless, your odds of winning in games that utilize more decks are still slightly better.
Baccarat has been a hit at the casino table for over 500 years and, in that time, a plethora of strategies have surfaced as ways to maximise the player’s time at the table. We have complied the top 10 Baccarat strategies that you can take to the table in 2022 and beyond.
Remember– As with any other casino strategies, there is no guarantee that any of the strategies listed will lead to wins 100% of the time. Utilising a strategy can give you a play style to focus your betting behaviour but no strategy is bulletproof.
How to Play Baccarat- A Quick Reminder
Before we get into the Baccarat play systems, here is a quick reminder of how a standard game of Baccarat is played:
Choose your chip size and place your bets on Player, Banker, or Tie to win
2 cards are drawn to both the Player and the Banker and revealed
The value of the two cards is combined up to a maximum value of 9 with the closest value winning
If the value is over 9, then it resets to 0 and increases up to 9 again
If the total value equals 5 or less, then a 3rd card is awarded and the value matched against the opponent
If you want a more extensive breakdown of how Baccarat works including the 3-card rule and how Banker/Player Pair bets are made and won, then check out How to Play Baccarat for all the top info on mastering the table casino classic.
Baccarat Bet Types
Here’s a little cheat sheet of the available Baccarat moves that you can use when applying your newfound strategies:
Bet Type
Payout
Description
Banker
0.95:1
Places a bet on the Banker hand to win
Player
1:1
Places a bet on the Player hand to win
Tie
8:1
Places a bet on both hands to be of equal value at the end of the round
Banker Pair
11:1
Places a bet on the Banker to win with the initial two cards awarded
Player Pair
11:1
Places a bet on the Player to win with the initial two cards awarded
Top 10 Baccarat Strategies
#1- The Baccarat Martingale
The Martingale is one of the most popular casino strategies worldwide and follows one all-important rule; every time you lose a round you double your bet value. The idea behind this strategy is that, when you win, it will offset the value of the lost rounds. Set yourself a betting style and stick to it religiously to follow this strategy. Upgrade the strategy by applying flexible min and max bet limits and keep within those limits to keep it manageable.
#2- Side with the Banker
Statistically, the Banker has a slightly higher chance of winning on any given round and awards a payout of 0.95:1 as opposed to the Player which awards 1:1. This strategy is pretty simple; bet on the Banker on every round. Despite the slight advantage over the Player space, there is no guarantee the Banker will win so stick to it for multiple rounds to maximise this strategy.
#3- Focus on Pair Bets
The Pair bets have the highest potential return on your initial bet with a payout of 11:1. This strategy focuses on making bets exclusively on Player Pair or Banker Pair bets to win. For every win, you will win 11x your bet value with each win offsetting the potential losses from non-winning rounds. Stick to one type of bet or alternate between them to spice up the action.
#4- Baccarat Fibonacci
Originally a strategy employed for Roulette, the Fibonacci can be modified to work with Baccarat. The strategy primarily focuses on Banker bets and follows a sequence of betting values on each round. Set yourself a minimum bet value and, whenever you win, move one step one the sequence. If you lose a round, return to the first step of the sequence and start again. The sequence to follow is:
If you lose, start again with a £1 bet and repeat the sequence until the next losing hand
#5- The James Bond
It’s the secret agent’s favourite game and it would only be appropriate for there to be a strategy centered around the man who enjoys his martini shaken. You play each round at £200 and split it across 3 bets of:
£140 on a number Banker
£50 on a number Player
The other £10 on Tie
The James Bond strategy can be heavily modified so the values can be higher or lower depending on your budget. Set yourself a strict limit and don’t spend more than you would be comfortable with; as long as the values can be split similar to the above format.
#6- The 3 2 System
This system bases its strategy on placing 5 chips of equal value split across 2 different bets. For Baccarat, the split is between either the Banker and Banker Pair bets or the Player and Player Pair bets. Once decided, follow this sequence:
Place 3 chips on Banker/Player
Place the remaining 2 chips on Banker Pair/Player Pair
Repeat after each round and adjust chip values according to your budget
This strategy can be altered to alter between Player and Banker at different intervals of rounds or mix and match with Banker/Player and Banker Pair/Player Pair.
#7- The 1 3 2 6 System
This strategy follows a similar setup as the Fibonacci but increases the number of chips in play rather than the base bet value. Essentially, you set a chip size that becomes your base bet, and, after every winning round, you follow the pattern and add chips accordingly. The sequence goes 1,3,2,6 before resetting after 6 if another win is achieved.
As an example:
You set your base bet at £1
Stage 1 is played at 1 chip of £1 and if that wins you move onto stage 2
Stage 2 is played with 3 chips at £1 for a total of £3 and if that wins you move onto stage 3
Stage 3 is played with 2 chips at £1 for a total of £2 with a win moving onto stage 4
Stage 4 is played with 6 chips at £1 for a total of £6 with a win resetting the sequence back to stage 1
All bets played on this strategy should be focused on Player/Banker bets as they have the highest likelihood of winning over the riskier Tie or Player/Banker Pair bets.
#8- The Reverse Martingale
The Reverse Martingale is, as expected, very similar to the Martingale but with one distinct difference. Whenever you win a round, you double your bet value and decrease it on any losing round. Instead of using wins to offset losing values, the Reverse Martingale focuses on limiting the amount lost through lowering bets on losing rounds to limit the amount lost on each round.
#9- Side with the Player
A similar strategy to Side with the Banker but you place bets exclusively on the Player space. The Player has close to the same chance of winning as the Banker and pays a slightly higher amount at 1:1. There’s no guarantee of the Player winning on a given round so stick to it and alternate your bet values based on your limits.
#10- The Mix Up
Does what it says on the tin. This is a super flexible strategy with only one rule; don’t stick to just one bet type. Set yourself rules on the number of identical bets you plan to make and then, once you’ve hit that limit, alternate to a different bet until you’ve covered all 5 available bets. Once you’ve reached the end of the cycle, simply repeat. This allows you to get a chance with every bet type and never miss out on those all-important winning bets.
Top Tips for Baccarat Strategies
Practice makes perfect– As with anything, it takes time to learn and implement a strategy confidently so take your time and practice. Try out a variety of different strategies and play at low stakes to get a hang of how the different playstyles work.
Shop around– While sticking to 1 single strategy is the quickest way to pick it up, shopping around and trying out several different strategies can help you find the one that works best for you. Experiment with a variety of playstyles
Master your favourite– Once you’ve shopped around and tried a few strategies, find the one that works best for you and maximise it. Take the time to get comfortable with it and learn all you can to become a master. Lots of practice still applies here so find your strategy of choice and make it the primary focus for practising.
** Find the game for you**- Once you’ve shopped around for the best strategy for you, try it out on some Baccarat variations and find what works best for you. Whether you favour the simplicity of a 2-card Dragon Tiger, enjoy the fast-paced nature of Speed Baccarat, or just want that classic experience; try a few out and see what takes your fancy.
Set limits and stick to them– Set limits and stick to them to ensure you don’t spend more than you intended. If you need a hand with setting limits including deposit limits and sessions, check out our range of Safer Gambling Tools that can be applied in seconds.
Top 10 Baccarat Tips (Mines Game) Apart from implementing a baccarat strategy to win, you can also take the following tips into consideration. These tips will help you grasp a better understanding of the game and potentially improve your overall playing strategy.
Understand the Rules: First and foremost it’s essential that you familiarize yourself with the rules of baccarat before you start playing. The three main basic bets are ‘Banker’, ‘Player’, and ‘Tie’. A bet on the ‘Banker’ means you predict the banker’s hand will have a value closer to 9. Similarly, a ‘Player’ bet predicts that the player’s hand will be closer to 9. A ‘Tie’ bet, on the other hand, predicts that both the banker and player hands will end up with the same value.
Banker Bet is Best: The banker bet has the lowest house edge (around 1.06%) making it the most statistically safe baccarat strategy to win. On the other hand, the ‘Tie’ bet has a significantly higher house edge of around 14.36%. We understand that this might be tempting, but it’s also the riskiest option. Best Strategy for Baccarat: Use betting strategies like the Martingale, Paroli, Fibonacci, 1-3-2-6, or Labouchere systems to manage your bets and potentially reduce losses. These strategies do not guarantee a win, but they offer structured baccarat betting strategies that can help you maintain control over your bankroll and make informed decisions based on predefined rules.
Play Short Sessions: The house edge will likely catch up with you the longer you play. Consider playing short sessions and set a limit on the number of rounds you’ll play in each session. Practice in Free Games: Many online casinos offer free baccarat games in demo mode. Take this opportunity to practice and learn the best strategy for baccarat without risking real money. Look for Fewer Decks: If possible, choose a baccarat game that uses fewer decks. Games with fewer decks have a lower house edge on the ‘Banker’ bet. Moreover, playing games with fewer decks also tends to offer lower variability, making your gaming experience more consistent and potentially reducing the impact of unfortunate losing streaks. Set a Budget: It’s always wise to decide on a fixed amount that you are willing to spend (and potentially lose) before you start playing. Otherwise you might be easily carried away with the excitement while trying to win at baccarat. So best to stick to this budget to avoid huge losses.
Quit While You’re Ahead: If you’ve had a good run, consider calling it a day and walking away with your winnings. It can be tempting to keep playing, but every round is independent and the house edge is always present. Understand Commission Rates: Typically, a winning ‘Banker’ bet is subject to a 5% commission deducted by the house. However, different casinos or tables might have varying commission rates. Always check and understand these rates before you play. Lower commission rates are generally more favorable for the player. Enjoy the Game: Lastly, remember that baccarat is a game of chance. Enjoy it as a form of entertainment and don’t get too frustrated over losses.
How to Win Baccarat with the Best Strategy (Mines Game) While there’s no baccarat strategy to guarantee consistent wins in baccarat, some techniques on how to beat baccarat can help you make more informed decisions and potentially improve your chances of winning. From our perspective, the Martingale System is one of the most well-known and effective baccarat strategies to win.
To implement this system, you begin with a base bet, which is typically the minimum allowed at the table. If a bet is lost, the player doubles their next bet to compensate for the previous round’s losses. However, after a win, the player resets back to their initial base bet and starts the process once again from the beginning.
This strategy has several advantages. Firstly, it’s quite simple to follow which makes it easy for players to understand and apply without the need for complex calculations. Secondly, it offers the potential for quick recovery, allowing players to regain losses and potentially generate a small profit after a series of losses.
Despite these advantages, we cannot leave out the fact that the Martingale System also carries inherent risks. One major concern is the potential for exponential losses. Prolonged losing streaks can lead to rapidly escalating bets, resulting in significant financial losses.
Moreover, many casinos impose table limits, restricting the ability to double bets indefinitely, so a small bankroll might not endure an extended period of consecutive losses.
Even though we perceive the Martingale System as the best baccarat winning strategy, it’s essential to recognize that it’s not a guaranteed technique on how to beat baccarat. The outcomes remain random, and there’s no assurance that a win will occur at a predicted time.
No betting strategy can alter the inherent odds of the game, and baccarat is largely dependent on luck. Responsible gambling is crucial, and players should view baccarat as a form of entertainment rather than a guaranteed method for profit.
